Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk preview
Sliema Wanderers face Marsaxlokk with a 1X2 probability of 35% for Sliema, 28% for a draw, and 37% for Marsaxlokk. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% chance. Both teams to score is at 57%, suggesting a strong possibility of goals from both sides, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 52%.
Sliema's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws, while Marsaxlokk has 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.35 for Sliema and 1.41 for Marsaxlokk, indicating a closely matched contest. However, Sliema has not won any of their last 3 meetings with Marsaxlokk, all of which ended in draws, which could affect their confidence.
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk: model vs market
| Source | Sliema Wanderers | Draw | Marsaxlokk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sliema Wanderers and Marsaxlokk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Sliema Wanderers / Marsaxlokk)
- 0.93 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Sliema Wanderers / Marsaxlokk)
- 0.96 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sliema Wanderers goals. Columns: Marsaxlokk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sliema Wanderers | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Marsaxlokk | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sliema Wanderers or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Marsaxlokk) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marsaxlokk win by 2+ | 18% | 5.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sliema Wanderers and Marsaxlokk recent form
Sliema Wanderers
3W 2D 1L
Marsaxlokk
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sliema Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Marsaxlokk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sliema Wanderers at home only, Marsaxlokk away only.
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sliema Wanderers 0 · draws 3 · Marsaxlokk 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Marsaxlokk | 1-1 | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-01-06 | Sliema Wanderers | 0-0 | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Sliema Wanderers | 1-1 | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Sliema Wanderers, previous: Zabbar St. Patrick vs Sliema Wanderers: odds and pick
- Marsaxlokk, previous: Birzebbuga vs Marsaxlokk: odds and pick