Mosta vs Gzira United preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Mosta and Gzira United, the 1X2 probabilities show Mosta at 72%, with a predicted scoreline of 2-0 at 15%. Mosta has strong recent form, with 6 consecutive matches without a loss, while Gzira United has struggled, recording 6 losses in their last 6 games.
The model indicates a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance for both teams to score. However, if Gzira United improves their performance or if Mosta underperforms, these predictions could change. Gzira United's historical dominance over Mosta, with 7 wins in the last 10 encounters, also adds an unpredictable element to the match.
Mosta vs Gzira United: model vs market
| Source | Mosta | Draw | Gzira United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 19% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 73% | 19% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mosta vs Gzira United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mosta, 4 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mosta | 2.50 | 2.26 | -0.24 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.32 | +0.02 |
| Gzira United | 2.39 | 2.71 | +0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mosta and Gzira United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Mosta / Gzira United)
- 1.24 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Mosta / Gzira United)
- 0.95 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mosta vs Gzira United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mosta goals. Columns: Gzira United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mosta vs Gzira United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mosta vs Gzira United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 73% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.35 | |
| Gzira United | 9% | 11.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mosta or draw) | 91% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Gzira United) | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mosta win by 2+ | 50% | 2.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mosta and Gzira United recent form
Mosta
4W 2D 0L
Gzira United
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mosta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gzira United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mosta at home only, Gzira United away only.
Mosta vs Gzira United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mosta 2 · draws 1 · Gzira United 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Gzira United | 1-1 | Mosta | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-03-03 | Gzira United | 2-1 | Mosta | FA Trophy |
| 2026-02-22 | Gzira United | 1-0 | Mosta | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-11-24 | Gzira United | 1-0 | Mosta | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-10-02 | Mosta | 3-4 | Gzira United | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-07-18 | Mosta | 3-1 | Gzira United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-01-04 | Mosta | 1-0 | Gzira United | Premier League |
| 2024-08-29 | Gzira United | 2-0 | Mosta | Premier League |
| 2024-03-17 | Gzira United | 2-1 | Mosta | Premier League |
| 2023-11-26 | Mosta | 0-3 | Gzira United | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Mosta, previous: Mosta vs Birzebbuga: odds and pick
- Gzira United, previous: Gzira United vs Sliema Wanderers: odds and pick