Gzira United vs Sliema Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Gzira United | Draw | Sliema Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 32% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 32% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gzira United and Sliema Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.09
- Attack rating (Gzira United / Sliema Wanderers)
- 0.60 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Gzira United / Sliema Wanderers)
- 1.31 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gzira United vs Sliema Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gzira United goals. Columns: Sliema Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gzira United vs Sliema Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gzira United vs Sliema Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 24% | 4.23 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Sliema Wanderers | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gzira United or draw) | 55% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Sliema Wanderers) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sliema Wanderers win by 2+ | 21% | 4.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gzira United and Sliema Wanderers recent form
Gzira United
0W 1D 5L
Sliema Wanderers
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gzira United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Sliema Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gzira United at home only, Sliema Wanderers away only.
Gzira United vs Sliema Wanderers head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Gzira United 0 · draws 0 · Sliema Wanderers 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Sliema Wanderers | 2-1 | Gzira United | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-24 | Sliema Wanderers | 2-0 | Gzira United | Malta Premier League |
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