Malta Premier League · Matchday 7

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk

Alin prediction Zabbar St. Patrick to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Zabbar St. PatrickDrawMarsaxlokk
Bet on Zabbar St. Patrick

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceZabbar St. PatrickDrawMarsaxlokk
Model49%24%27%
Market———
Published49%24%27%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.37.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.90Zabbar St. Patrick
1.37Marsaxlokk
Total expected goals
3.28
Attack rating (Zabbar St. Patrick / Marsaxlokk)
1.13 / 1.25
Defence rating (Zabbar St. Patrick / Marsaxlokk)
0.95 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 4.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.8% 1 6.2% 10.8% 6.8% 3.1% 1.4% 2 6.8% 9.4% 6.4% 3.0% 1.4% 3 4.3% 6.0% 4.1% 1.9% 0.9% 4+ 3.2% 4.4% 3.0% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: Zabbar St. Patrick goals. Columns: Marsaxlokk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Zabbar St. Patrick49%2.04
Draw24%4.12
Marsaxlokk27%3.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.75
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.55
No35%2.82
Double chance1X (Zabbar St. Patrick or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Marsaxlokk)51%1.96
Handicap -1Zabbar St. Patrick win by 2+28%3.54
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk recent form

Zabbar St. Patrick 2W 2D 2L
Marsaxlokk 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Zabbar St. Patrick at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Marsaxlokk away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Zabbar St. Patrick at home only, Marsaxlokk away only.

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Zabbar St. Patrick 0 · draws 0 · Marsaxlokk 2.

Zabbar St. PatrickDrawsMarsaxlokk
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-07Zabbar St. Patrick1-2MarsaxlokkMalta Premier League
2025-10-29Marsaxlokk1-0Zabbar St. PatrickMalta Premier League

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Prediction snapshot Zabbar St. Patrick to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Zabbar St. Patrick
Our pick: Zabbar St. Patrick to win 18+ Bet Now