Balzan FC vs Floriana: model vs market
| Source | Balzan FC | Draw | Floriana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.40.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Balzan FC and Floriana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Balzan FC / Floriana)
- 1.09 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Balzan FC / Floriana)
- 0.86 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Balzan FC vs Floriana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Balzan FC goals. Columns: Floriana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Balzan FC vs Floriana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Balzan FC vs Floriana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Balzan FC | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Floriana | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Balzan FC or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Floriana) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Balzan FC win by 2+ | 25% | 4.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Balzan FC and Floriana recent form
Balzan FC
2W 3D 1L
Floriana
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Balzan FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Floriana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Balzan FC at home only, Floriana away only.
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- Gzira United v Sliema Wanderers — match page 2026-10-11