Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans: model vs market
| Source | Hibernians | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hibernians and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Hibernians / Hamrun Spartans)
- 0.97 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Hibernians / Hamrun Spartans)
- 0.93 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hibernians goals. Columns: Hamrun Spartans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernians | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hibernians or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamrun Spartans) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernians win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hibernians and Hamrun Spartans recent form
Hibernians
2W 2D 2L
Hamrun Spartans
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hibernians at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Hamrun Spartans away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hibernians at home only, Hamrun Spartans away only.
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hibernians 0 · draws 0 · Hamrun Spartans 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Hibernians | 0-1 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-27 | Hamrun Spartans | 2-0 | Hibernians | Malta Premier League |
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