Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić preview
Arsenal Tivat faces Dečić in the Montenegro First League, with Dečić slightly favored at 36% to win compared to Arsenal Tivat's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. Both teams to score has a 41% probability, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides.
Arsenal Tivat's recent form shows they have struggled, with only one win in their last six matches. Dečić, on the other hand, has improved recently, winning two of their last three games. The expected goals suggest Arsenal Tivat may struggle to find the net, with 0.93 expected goals compared to Dečić's 1.06. This context could lead to a different outcome than the model suggests.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal Tivat | Draw | Dečić |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.99
- Attack rating (Arsenal Tivat / Dečić)
- 0.74 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Arsenal Tivat / Dečić)
- 1.23 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal Tivat goals. Columns: Dečić goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal Tivat | 30% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Dečić | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal Tivat or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Dečić) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dečić win by 2+ | 15% | 6.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Arsenal Tivat and Dečić recent form
Arsenal Tivat
1W 1D 4L
Dečić
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal Tivat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
Dečić away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal Tivat at home only, Dečić away only.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal Tivat 3 · draws 4 · Dečić 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Dečić | 0-0 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-07-04 | Dečić | 4-1 | Arsenal Tivat | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-05-20 | Dečić | 1-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-03-21 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-1 | Dečić | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-11-30 | Dečić | 4-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-09-21 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-1 | Dečić | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-04-12 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-0 | Dečić | First League |
| 2025-02-22 | Dečić | 0-0 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| 2024-10-06 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-0 | Dečić | First League |
| 2024-09-18 | Dečić | 1-3 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
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