Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić preview
In the match between Arsenal Tivat and Dečić, the 1X2 probabilities show Dečić at 48%, compared to Arsenal Tivat's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. Both teams have struggled recently, with Arsenal Tivat recording L-D-D-L-L-W and Dečić at L-W-L-L-D-L.
While the expected goals are closely matched at Arsenal Tivat 1.02 and Dečić 1.01, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 32%, and both teams to score stands at 41%. This indicates a potential low-scoring match, which could contradict the expectation of a more open game. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal Tivat | Draw | Dečić |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| Market | 20% | 27% | 52% |
| Published | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| Edge | +2% | +2% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dečić, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tivat | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.30 | -0.07 |
| Dečić | 1.73 | 1.73 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.03
- Attack rating (Arsenal Tivat / Dečić)
- 0.85 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Arsenal Tivat / Dečić)
- 1.36 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal Tivat goals. Columns: Dečić goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal Tivat | 23% | 4.43 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Dečić | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal Tivat or draw) | 52% | 1.94 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Dečić) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dečić win by 2+ | 13% | 7.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić recent form
Arsenal Tivat
1W 2D 3L
Dečić
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal Tivat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Dečić away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal Tivat at home only, Dečić away only.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal Tivat 3 · draws 4 · Dečić 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Dečić | 0-0 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-07-04 | Dečić | 4-1 | Arsenal Tivat | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-05-20 | Dečić | 1-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-03-21 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-1 | Dečić | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-11-30 | Dečić | 4-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-09-21 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-1 | Dečić | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-04-12 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-0 | Dečić | First League |
| 2025-02-22 | Dečić | 0-0 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| 2024-10-06 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-0 | Dečić | First League |
| 2024-09-18 | Dečić | 1-3 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Bokelj v Petrovac — match page 2026-11-25
Before and after this match
- Arsenal Tivat, previous: Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero: odds and pick
- Dečić, previous: Dečić – Mladost DG, 2026-11-08