Bokelj vs Petrovac preview
In the Montenegro First League match between Bokelj and Petrovac, the 1X2 probabilities show Bokelj at 39%, Petrovac at 29%, and a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 21% chance according to our model. Bokelj has an expected goals figure of 1.03, while Petrovac sits at 0.65, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, Bokelj's recent form includes two draws and two losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Petrovac has shown some resilience, with three wins in their last six games, despite their recent struggles. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 28%, and both teams to score is at 29%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more likely.
Bokelj vs Petrovac: model vs market
| Source | Bokelj | Draw | Petrovac |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 29% | 11% |
| Market | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| Published | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Edge | +7% | -1% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.65.
- The market prices Bokelj below our published probability: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +13.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bokelj vs Petrovac odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bokelj, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bokelj | 2.78 | 2.80 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 2.70 | 2.75 | +0.05 |
| Petrovac | 2.60 | 2.63 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bokelj and Petrovac expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.68
- Attack rating (Bokelj / Petrovac)
- 0.76 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Bokelj / Petrovac)
- 0.76 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bokelj vs Petrovac score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bokelj goals. Columns: Petrovac goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bokelj vs Petrovac goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bokelj vs Petrovac
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bokelj | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Petrovac | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.50 |
| No | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bokelj or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Petrovac) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bokelj win by 2+ | 17% | 5.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bokelj and Petrovac recent form
Bokelj
2W 2D 2L
Petrovac
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bokelj at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Petrovac away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-1
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bokelj at home only, Petrovac away only.
Bokelj vs Petrovac head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bokelj 2 · draws 1 · Petrovac 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Petrovac | 0-1 | Bokelj | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-04-08 | Bokelj | 0-1 | Petrovac | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-02-14 | Petrovac | 1-0 | Bokelj | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-12-10 | Petrovac | 0-0 | Bokelj | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-10-01 | Bokelj | 1-2 | Petrovac | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-08-04 | Petrovac | 2-0 | Bokelj | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-05-14 | Petrovac | 0-1 | Bokelj | First League |
| 2025-03-16 | Bokelj | 0-4 | Petrovac | First League |
| 2024-11-10 | Petrovac | 1-0 | Bokelj | First League |
| 2024-09-14 | Bokelj | 0-1 | Petrovac | First League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić 2026-11-25
Before and after this match
- Bokelj, previous: Bokelj vs Mornar prediction
- Petrovac, previous: Sutjeska v Petrovac analysis