Ranchers Bees vs Doma United Prediction & Betting Tips 18/11/2026

Ranchers Bees vs Doma United preview

In the Nigeria Premier Football League fixture, Ranchers Bees have a 56% chance to win against Doma United, who sit at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% probability. While Ranchers Bees have an expected goals figure of 1.60, Doma United's is only 0.80, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.

However, the recent form shows Ranchers Bees with one win in their last five matches, while Doma United has two draws and one win in their last five. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 43% and for both teams to score at 45%. These figures suggest that while Ranchers Bees are favored, unexpected performances could lead to different outcomes.

Ranchers Bees vs Doma United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ranchers Bees	Draw	Doma United
Model	60%	25%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	60%	25%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.81.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ranchers Bees and Doma United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.79Ranchers Bees

0.81Doma United

Total expected goals: 2.61
Attack rating (Ranchers Bees / Doma United): 0.95 / 1.20
Defence rating (Ranchers Bees / Doma United): 1.07 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ranchers Bees vs Doma United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.5% 4.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1 12.2% 11.8% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.9% 9.6% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 7.1% 5.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 4.8% 3.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Ranchers Bees goals. Columns: Doma United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ranchers Bees vs Doma United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 74%

Over 2.5 48%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ranchers Bees vs Doma United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ranchers Bees	60%	1.68
	Draw	25%	4.01
	Doma United	16%	6.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	48%	2.07
	Under 2.5	52%	1.93
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.11
	No	53%	1.90
Double chance	1X (Ranchers Bees or draw)	84%	1.18
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Doma United)	40%	2.47
Handicap -1	Ranchers Bees win by 2+	35%	2.85
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Ranchers Bees and Doma United recent form

Ranchers Bees 1W 3D 2L

Doma United 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ranchers Bees at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-2-0
Win rate: 60%
Goals for / match: 1.40
Goals against / match: 0.20
Clean sheets: 4 of 5

They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.

Doma United away

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-3
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ranchers Bees at home only, Doma United away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Sporting Lagos vs Enugu Rangers 2026-11-25

Before and after this match

Ranchers Bees, previous: Kano Pillars – Ranchers Bees, 2026-11-14
Doma United, previous: Doma United v Barau FC analysis

Prediction snapshot Ranchers Bees to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Ranchers Bees