Ranchers Bees vs Doma United preview
In the Nigeria Premier Football League match between Ranchers Bees and Doma United, the 1X2 probabilities show Ranchers Bees at 56% to win, while Doma United sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance according to our model.
Ranchers Bees has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to Doma United's 0.79. However, the chances of Over 2.5 goals are at 43%, and both teams to score stands at 45%. This means the match could potentially see more goals than expected, especially given the recent form of both teams, which includes several draws for Doma United.
Ranchers Bees vs Doma United: model vs market
| Source | Ranchers Bees | Draw | Doma United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.79.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ranchers Bees and Doma United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Ranchers Bees / Doma United)
- 0.94 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Ranchers Bees / Doma United)
- 1.23 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ranchers Bees vs Doma United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ranchers Bees goals. Columns: Doma United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ranchers Bees vs Doma United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ranchers Bees vs Doma United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ranchers Bees | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Doma United | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ranchers Bees or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Doma United) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ranchers Bees win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ranchers Bees and Doma United recent form
Ranchers Bees
1W 2D 3L
Doma United
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ranchers Bees at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Doma United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ranchers Bees at home only, Doma United away only.
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Before and after this match
- Ranchers Bees, previous: Shooting Stars vs Ranchers Bees: odds and pick
- Doma United, previous: Doma United v Kun Khalifat FC analysis