Doma United vs Barau FC preview
In the Nigeria Premier Football League fixture between Doma United and Barau FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Doma United at 52%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 14%. Doma United's expected goals stand at 1.48, while Barau FC's is lower at 0.81. This suggests a potential win for Doma United, but the recent form of both teams could complicate matters.
Doma United's recent results include two draws and two losses, while Barau FC has not won in their last six matches, with four draws. The model indicates a 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score. If Barau FC improves their attacking performance, the outcome could change significantly.
Doma United vs Barau FC: model vs market
| Source | Doma United | Draw | Barau FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.85.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Doma United and Barau FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Doma United / Barau FC)
- 1.20 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Doma United / Barau FC)
- 1.29 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Doma United vs Barau FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Doma United goals. Columns: Barau FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Doma United vs Barau FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Doma United vs Barau FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doma United | 48% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Barau FC | 22% | 4.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Doma United or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Barau FC) | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Doma United win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Doma United and Barau FC recent form
Doma United
1W 3D 2L
Barau FC
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Doma United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barau FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Doma United at home only, Barau FC away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Katsina United v Nasarawa United — match page 2026-11-15
- Kwara United vs Rivers United — team news & stats 2026-11-15
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Before and after this match
- Doma United, previous: Abia Warriors – Doma United, 2026-11-08
- Doma United, next: Ranchers Bees vs Doma United prediction
- Barau FC, previous: Barau FC v Shooting Stars analysis