Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos preview
In the Nigeria Premier Football League fixture between Warri Wolves and Sporting Lagos, the 1X2 probabilities show Warri Wolves at 52%, with Sporting Lagos at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring 18% of the time according to our model.
Warri Wolves have an expected goals figure of 1.28, while Sporting Lagos sits at 0.61. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are only 29%, and both teams to score is at 34%. These lower figures suggest that the game could be tight, and any deviation from expected performances could affect the outcome.
Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos: model vs market
| Source | Warri Wolves | Draw | Sporting Lagos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.59.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Warri Wolves and Sporting Lagos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.94
- Attack rating (Warri Wolves / Sporting Lagos)
- 0.77 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Warri Wolves / Sporting Lagos)
- 0.75 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Warri Wolves goals. Columns: Sporting Lagos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Warri Wolves | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Sporting Lagos | 15% | 6.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.91 |
| No | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Warri Wolves or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Lagos) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Warri Wolves win by 2+ | 27% | 3.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Warri Wolves and Sporting Lagos recent form
Warri Wolves
1W 4D 1L
Sporting Lagos
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Warri Wolves at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Sporting Lagos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Warri Wolves at home only, Sporting Lagos away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Enyimba v Ikorodu City — match page 2026-11-15
- Inter Lagos vs Abia Warriors — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Katsina United v Nasarawa United — match page 2026-11-15
- Kwara United vs Rivers United — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Niger Tornadoes vs Enugu Rangers 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Warri Wolves, previous: Warri Wolves – Katsina United, 2026-11-08
- Sporting Lagos, previous: Sporting Lagos vs Rivers United prediction
- Sporting Lagos, next: Sporting Lagos vs Enugu Rangers prediction