Katsina United vs Nasarawa United preview
Katsina United hosts Nasarawa United with a 58% chance of winning, compared to Nasarawa's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with expected goals of 1.70 for Katsina and 0.78 for Nasarawa. However, the match could see a different outcome if Nasarawa's recent form, which includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, continues to shine.
Both teams to score stands at 46%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 45%. This suggests that while Katsina is favored, there is a possibility for a more open game if both teams find their attacking rhythm. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United: model vs market
| Source | Katsina United | Draw | Nasarawa United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.86.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Katsina United and Nasarawa United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Katsina United / Nasarawa United)
- 1.22 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Katsina United / Nasarawa United)
- 1.21 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Katsina United goals. Columns: Nasarawa United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Katsina United vs Nasarawa United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Katsina United | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Nasarawa United | 18% | 5.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Katsina United or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Nasarawa United) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Katsina United win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Katsina United and Nasarawa United recent form
Katsina United
2W 3D 1L
Nasarawa United
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Katsina United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Nasarawa United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Katsina United at home only, Nasarawa United away only.
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Katsina United 5 · draws 0 · Nasarawa United 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Katsina United | 1-0 | Nasarawa United | Nigeria Premier Football League |
| 2025-09-28 | Nasarawa United | 2-0 | Katsina United | Nigeria Premier Football League |
| 2025-01-25 | Nasarawa United | 1-0 | Katsina United | NPFL |
| 2024-12-29 | Katsina United | 1-0 | Nasarawa United | NPFL |
| 2022-05-15 | Katsina United | 1-0 | Nasarawa United | NPFL |
| 2022-01-23 | Nasarawa United | 1-0 | Katsina United | NPFL |
| 2021-06-06 | Katsina United | 2-1 | Nasarawa United | NPFL |
| 2021-01-17 | Nasarawa United | 1-0 | Katsina United | NPFL |
| 2020-03-08 | Nasarawa United | 3-0 | Katsina United | NPFL |
| 2019-11-17 | Katsina United | 1-0 | Nasarawa United | NPFL |
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Before and after this match
- Katsina United, previous: Warri Wolves – Katsina United, 2026-11-08
- Nasarawa United, previous: Nasarawa United v Plateau United analysis