Shooting Stars vs Bendel Insurance preview
Shooting Stars face Bendel Insurance with a 64% probability of winning, while Bendel Insurance has only a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, supported by expected goals of 2.06 for Shooting Stars and 0.99 for Bendel Insurance. This suggests a strong performance from the home side.
However, recent form shows that Bendel Insurance has won 4 of their last 6 matches, which could challenge Shooting Stars' dominance. Additionally, the model indicates a 59% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score. These factors could lead to a different outcome than anticipated.
Shooting Stars vs Bendel Insurance: model vs market
| Source | Shooting Stars | Draw | Bendel Insurance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Published | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.99.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Shooting Stars and Bendel Insurance expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Shooting Stars / Bendel Insurance)
- 1.17 / 1.37
- Defence rating (Shooting Stars / Bendel Insurance)
- 1.15 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shooting Stars vs Bendel Insurance score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shooting Stars goals. Columns: Bendel Insurance goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shooting Stars vs Bendel Insurance goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shooting Stars vs Bendel Insurance
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shooting Stars | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Bendel Insurance | 13% | 7.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shooting Stars or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Bendel Insurance) | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shooting Stars win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shooting Stars and Bendel Insurance recent form
Shooting Stars
2W 2D 2L
Bendel Insurance
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shooting Stars at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
Bendel Insurance away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shooting Stars at home only, Bendel Insurance away only.
Shooting Stars vs Bendel Insurance head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Shooting Stars 3 · draws 3 · Bendel Insurance 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Shooting Stars | 1-0 | Bendel Insurance | Nigeria Premier Football League |
| 2025-08-30 | Bendel Insurance | 1-1 | Shooting Stars | Nigeria Premier Football League |
| 2025-02-08 | Shooting Stars | 1-0 | Bendel Insurance | NPFL |
| 2024-10-02 | Bendel Insurance | 1-0 | Shooting Stars | NPFL |
| 2024-02-29 | Shooting Stars | 1-0 | Bendel Insurance | NPFL |
| 2023-10-07 | Bendel Insurance | 2-0 | Shooting Stars | NPFL |
| 2023-05-07 | Bendel Insurance | 1-1 | Shooting Stars | NPFL |
| 2023-02-12 | Shooting Stars | 2-2 | Bendel Insurance | NPFL |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Doma United vs Barau FC 2026-11-14
- Kano Pillars vs Ranchers Bees 2026-11-14
- Enyimba v Ikorodu City — match page 2026-11-15
- Inter Lagos vs Abia Warriors — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Katsina United v Nasarawa United — match page 2026-11-15
- Kwara United vs Rivers United — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Niger Tornadoes vs Enugu Rangers 2026-11-15
- Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Shooting Stars, previous: Barau FC v Shooting Stars analysis
- Bendel Insurance, previous: Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes: odds and pick