Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes preview
In the Nigeria Premier Football League fixture, Bendel Insurance has a 56% chance to win against Niger Tornadoes, who have a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 17% probability. Bendel Insurance's expected goals stand at 1.46, while Niger Tornadoes are at 0.64, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the forecast. Both teams to score has a probability of 38%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 35%. This means if either team finds form or if the match dynamics shift, the outcome could differ from the prediction.
Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes: model vs market
| Source | Bendel Insurance | Draw | Niger Tornadoes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 30% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 30% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.60.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bendel Insurance and Niger Tornadoes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.97
- Attack rating (Bendel Insurance / Niger Tornadoes)
- 1.33 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Bendel Insurance / Niger Tornadoes)
- 1.22 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bendel Insurance goals. Columns: Niger Tornadoes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bendel Insurance | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Niger Tornadoes | 15% | 6.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.88 |
| No | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bendel Insurance or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Niger Tornadoes) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bendel Insurance win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bendel Insurance and Niger Tornadoes recent form
Bendel Insurance
3W 0D 3L
Niger Tornadoes
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bendel Insurance at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Niger Tornadoes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bendel Insurance at home only, Niger Tornadoes away only.
Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bendel Insurance 1 · draws 1 · Niger Tornadoes 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Niger Tornadoes | 2-2 | Bendel Insurance | Nigeria Premier Football League |
| 2025-09-13 | Bendel Insurance | 1-0 | Niger Tornadoes | Nigeria Premier Football League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kun Khalifat FC v Kano Pillars — match page 2026-11-06
- Abia Warriors vs Doma United 2026-11-08
- Barau FC v Shooting Stars — match page 2026-11-08
- Nasarawa United vs Plateau United — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ranchers Bees vs Enyimba 2026-11-08
- Enugu Rangers v Kwara United — match page 2026-11-08
- Warri Wolves vs Katsina United — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ikorodu City vs Inter Lagos 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Bendel Insurance, previous: Enugu Rangers – Bendel Insurance, 2026-11-04
- Niger Tornadoes, previous: Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC prediction