Ikorodu City vs Inter Lagos preview
Ikorodu City faces Inter Lagos with a strong 78% chance of winning according to our model, while Inter Lagos has just a 6% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which reflects Ikorodu City's expected goals of 2.40 compared to Inter Lagos's 0.53.
While there is a 56% probability of Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score is less likely at 38%. Ikorodu City's recent form shows a mix of results with two draws and two losses, while Inter Lagos has struggled with five winless matches. This could impact the final outcome, despite the strong numbers favoring Ikorodu City.
Ikorodu City vs Inter Lagos: model vs market
| Source | Ikorodu City | Draw | Inter Lagos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.53.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ikorodu City and Inter Lagos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Ikorodu City / Inter Lagos)
- 1.24 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Ikorodu City / Inter Lagos)
- 1.27 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ikorodu City vs Inter Lagos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ikorodu City goals. Columns: Inter Lagos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ikorodu City vs Inter Lagos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ikorodu City vs Inter Lagos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ikorodu City | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.24 | |
| Inter Lagos | 6% | 17.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.62 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ikorodu City or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter Lagos) | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ikorodu City win by 2+ | 56% | 1.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ikorodu City and Inter Lagos recent form
Ikorodu City
1W 3D 2L
Inter Lagos
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ikorodu City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter Lagos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ikorodu City at home only, Inter Lagos away only.
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Before and after this match
- Ikorodu City, previous: Doma United v Ikorodu City analysis
- Inter Lagos, previous: Inter Lagos vs Ranchers Bees prediction