Doma United vs Ikorodu City preview
Doma United has a 60% chance to win against Ikorodu City, who have a 15% chance according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Doma United's expected goals stand at 1.80, while Ikorodu City's is 0.81, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the model shows a 48% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. This suggests that while Doma United is favored, unexpected performances from Ikorodu City could alter the outcome. Recent form also indicates inconsistency, with Doma United's last five matches showing two draws and three losses.
Doma United vs Ikorodu City: model vs market
| Source | Doma United | Draw | Ikorodu City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 25% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.87.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Doma United and Ikorodu City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Doma United / Ikorodu City)
- 1.04 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Doma United / Ikorodu City)
- 1.15 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Doma United vs Ikorodu City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Doma United goals. Columns: Ikorodu City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Doma United vs Ikorodu City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Doma United vs Ikorodu City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doma United | 59% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Ikorodu City | 17% | 6.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Doma United or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Ikorodu City) | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Doma United win by 2+ | 35% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Doma United and Ikorodu City recent form
Doma United
1W 2D 3L
Ikorodu City
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Doma United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ikorodu City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Doma United at home only, Ikorodu City away only.
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Before and after this match
- Doma United, previous: Doma United v Kun Khalifat FC analysis
- Doma United, next: Ranchers Bees vs Doma United prediction
- Ikorodu City, previous: Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars prediction