Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance preview
Kwara United faces Bendel Insurance with a 64% probability of winning according to our model, compared to Bendel's 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Kwara's expected goals of 2.16 against Bendel's 0.94.
However, Bendel Insurance has won both of their last two encounters with Kwara United, which could influence the outcome. While there is a 60% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score, recent form shows Kwara United's inconsistency with only 2 wins in their last 6 matches.
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance: model vs market
| Source | Kwara United | Draw | Bendel Insurance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.97.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kwara United and Bendel Insurance expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Kwara United / Bendel Insurance)
- 1.01 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Kwara United / Bendel Insurance)
- 1.10 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kwara United goals. Columns: Bendel Insurance goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kwara United | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Bendel Insurance | 17% | 5.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kwara United or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Bendel Insurance) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kwara United win by 2+ | 37% | 2.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kwara United and Bendel Insurance recent form
Kwara United
2W 2D 2L
Bendel Insurance
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kwara United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Bendel Insurance away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kwara United at home only, Bendel Insurance away only.
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kwara United 0 · draws 0 · Bendel Insurance 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Kwara United | 0-1 | Bendel Insurance | Nigeria Premier Football League |
| 2025-12-27 | Bendel Insurance | 2-0 | Kwara United | Nigeria Premier Football League |
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Before and after this match
- Kwara United, previous: Barau FC v Kwara United analysis
- Bendel Insurance, previous: Bendel Insurance vs Rivers United: odds and pick
- Bendel Insurance, next: Enugu Rangers – Bendel Insurance, 2026-11-04