Updated

Nigeria Premier Football League · Matchday 9

Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance

· Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium, Enugu

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Enugu Rangers to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Enugu RangersDrawBendel Insurance

Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEnugu RangersDrawBendel Insurance
Model66%20%14%
Market59%26%14%
Published61%25%14%
Edge+2%-2%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.03.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Enugu Rangers and Bendel Insurance expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.33Enugu Rangers
1.03Bendel Insurance
Total expected goals
3.35
Attack rating (Enugu Rangers / Bendel Insurance)
1.29 / 1.47
Defence rating (Enugu Rangers / Bendel Insurance)
1.11 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 2.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1 7.3% 9.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 2 9.5% 9.7% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3 7.3% 7.5% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 7.4% 7.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%

Rows: Enugu Rangers goals. Columns: Bendel Insurance goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Enugu Rangers61%1.64
Draw25%4.07
Bendel Insurance14%6.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.54
Under 2.535%2.86
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.42
Double chance1X (Enugu Rangers or draw)86%1.17
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Bendel Insurance)39%2.56
Handicap -1Enugu Rangers win by 2+44%2.28
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Enugu Rangers and Bendel Insurance recent form

Enugu Rangers 3W 2D 1L
Bendel Insurance 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Enugu Rangers at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Bendel Insurance away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Enugu Rangers at home only, Bendel Insurance away only.

Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Enugu Rangers 4 · draws 2 · Bendel Insurance 2.

Enugu RangersDrawsBendel Insurance
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Enugu Rangers2-1Bendel InsuranceNigeria Premier Football League
2025-12-13Bendel Insurance1-1Enugu RangersNigeria Premier Football League
2025-04-05Bendel Insurance0-0Enugu RangersNPFL
2024-11-17Enugu Rangers3-2Bendel InsuranceNPFL
2024-06-16Enugu Rangers2-0Bendel InsuranceNPFL
2024-01-06Bendel Insurance2-0Enugu RangersNPFL
2019-05-15Enugu Rangers1-0Bendel InsuranceNPFL
2019-04-25Bendel Insurance2-1Enugu RangersNPFL

Before and after this match