Updated

Nigeria Premier Football League · Matchday 12

Ranchers Bees vs Enyimba

Alin prediction Ranchers Bees to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ranchers BeesDrawEnyimba
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.80.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Ranchers Bees vs Enyimba preview

In the Nigeria Premier Football League, Ranchers Bees face Enyimba with a 1X2 probability of 56% for Ranchers Bees, 26% for a draw, and 18% for Enyimba. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance of occurring. Ranchers Bees have an expected goals figure of 1.69, while Enyimba's is 0.87, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side.

However, recent form shows Ranchers Bees with a record of L-D-L-D-L-W, while Enyimba has L-D-L-W-W-D. Both teams to score stands at 48%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 47%. These figures suggest that while Ranchers Bees are favored, the unpredictability of football could lead to different outcomes.

Ranchers Bees vs Enyimba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRanchers BeesDrawEnyimba
Model54%28%18%
Market———
Published54%28%18%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.80.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ranchers Bees and Enyimba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Ranchers Bees
0.80Enyimba
Total expected goals
2.36
Attack rating (Ranchers Bees / Enyimba)
0.95 / 1.07
Defence rating (Ranchers Bees / Enyimba)
1.20 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ranchers Bees vs Enyimba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 6.4% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1 13.5% 13.0% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.4% 9.2% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 5.9% 4.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 3.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Ranchers Bees goals. Columns: Enyimba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ranchers Bees vs Enyimba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ranchers Bees vs Enyimba

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ranchers Bees54%1.86
Draw28%3.58
Enyimba18%5.50
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.24
No55%1.81
Double chance1X (Ranchers Bees or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Enyimba)46%2.17
Handicap -1Ranchers Bees win by 2+29%3.44
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Ranchers Bees and Enyimba recent form

Ranchers Bees 0W 3D 3L
Enyimba 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ranchers Bees at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

Enyimba away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ranchers Bees at home only, Enyimba away only.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Ranchers Bees to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Ranchers Bees