Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca preview
In the fixture between Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca, the 1X2 probabilities show Alianza Lima at 74% to win, while FC Cajamarca sits at 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 11%. Alianza Lima has an expected goals figure of 2.68 compared to FC Cajamarca's 0.81, indicating a strong attacking performance from the home side.
However, Alianza Lima's recent form includes a draw, while FC Cajamarca has struggled with 4 losses in their last 5 matches. Although our model suggests a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 52%, any unexpected defensive resilience from FC Cajamarca could alter these outcomes.
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Lima | Draw | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Market | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Published | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alianza Lima, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1.19 | 1.25 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 6.55 | 5.65 | -0.90 |
| FC Cajamarca | 11.68 | 8.53 | -3.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Alianza Lima / FC Cajamarca)
- 1.06 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Alianza Lima / FC Cajamarca)
- 0.80 / 1.55
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Lima goals. Columns: FC Cajamarca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 74% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.25 | |
| FC Cajamarca | 10% | 9.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Lima or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cajamarca) | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win by 2+ | 56% | 1.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca recent form
Alianza Lima
4W 1D 1L
FC Cajamarca
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Lima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-1-2
- Win rate
- 81%
- Goals for / match
- 2.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 20 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
FC Cajamarca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.94
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Lima at home only, FC Cajamarca away only.
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Alianza Lima 0 · draws 1 · FC Cajamarca 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | FC Cajamarca | 1-1 | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
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- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page 2026-11-14
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys 2026-11-15
- Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso 2026-11-15
- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- Cusco vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- UCV Moquegua v Atletico Grau — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Alianza Lima, previous: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima: odds and pick
- FC Cajamarca, previous: FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico analysis