Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano preview
In the fixture between Sporting Cristal and Cienciano, Sporting Cristal has a 64% probability to win, compared to Cienciano's 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an expected goals figure of 2.61 for Sporting Cristal and 0.92 for Cienciano. This suggests a strong performance from Sporting Cristal.
However, Cienciano's recent form shows two wins in their last six matches, which could lead to an unexpected result. While there is a 69% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability of both teams to score, Cienciano's lower expected goals may hinder their ability to contribute significantly to the scoreline.
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Cristal | Draw | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sporting Cristal below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting Cristal, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 1.47 | 1.52 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.15 | -0.18 |
| Cienciano | 5.82 | 5.42 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting Cristal and Cienciano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Sporting Cristal / Cienciano)
- 1.58 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Sporting Cristal / Cienciano)
- 0.91 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Cristal goals. Columns: Cienciano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Cienciano | 15% | 6.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Cristal or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Cienciano) | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win by 2+ | 52% | 1.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting Cristal and Cienciano recent form
Sporting Cristal
4W 1D 1L
Cienciano
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting Cristal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-2-2
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Cienciano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-9
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Cristal at home only, Cienciano away only.
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sporting Cristal 5 · draws 2 · Cienciano 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Cienciano | 3-2 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-11-07 | Sporting Cristal | 2-1 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-07-05 | Cienciano | 1-1 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-07-27 | Sporting Cristal | 5-1 | Cienciano | Primera División |
| 2024-02-10 | Cienciano | 2-2 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| 2023-10-23 | Cienciano | 1-0 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| 2023-06-02 | Sporting Cristal | 4-2 | Cienciano | Primera División |
| 2022-09-11 | Sporting Cristal | 4-1 | Cienciano | Primera División |
| 2022-04-23 | Cienciano | 0-1 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| 2021-10-01 | Cienciano | 2-1 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
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- Sport Huancayo vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page 2026-11-14
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys 2026-11-15
- Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso 2026-11-15
- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- Cusco vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- UCV Moquegua v Atletico Grau — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Sporting Cristal, previous: ADT vs Sporting Cristal prediction
- Cienciano, previous: Cienciano – Sport Huancayo, 2026-11-08