UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas preview
In the fixture between UTC Cajamarca and Club Deportivo Los Chankas, the 1X2 probabilities show UTC Cajamarca at 41%, while Club Deportivo Los Chankas stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals for UTC Cajamarca is 1.78, compared to 0.93 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, both teams to score is at 52%, suggesting that Los Chankas could find the net. Recent form shows UTC Cajamarca with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Los Chankas has managed 1 win in their last 6 as well. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected results, making the match unpredictable despite the statistical leanings.
UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas: model vs market
| Source | UTC Cajamarca | Draw | Club Deportivo Los Chankas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Edge | +6% | -1% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.93.
- The market prices UTC Cajamarca below our published probability: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.22, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +20.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on UTC Cajamarca, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 2.21 | 2.92 | +0.71 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.20 | -0.15 |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3.03 | 2.25 | -0.78 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
UTC Cajamarca and Club Deportivo Los Chankas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (UTC Cajamarca / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 0.88 / 0.70
- Defence rating (UTC Cajamarca / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 1.25 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UTC Cajamarca goals. Columns: Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UTC Cajamarca or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | UTC Cajamarca win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
UTC Cajamarca and Club Deportivo Los Chankas recent form
UTC Cajamarca
1W 1D 4L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UTC Cajamarca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-8
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-6
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: UTC Cajamarca at home only, Club Deportivo Los Chankas away only.
UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: UTC Cajamarca 2 · draws 2 · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 2-2 | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-29 | UTC Cajamarca | 2-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-11 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 2-1 | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-09-19 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 1-1 | UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| 2024-04-15 | UTC Cajamarca | 2-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Primera División |
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- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page 2026-11-14
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys 2026-11-15
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Before and after this match
- UTC Cajamarca, previous: Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca: odds and pick
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas, previous: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima: odds and pick