Updated

Peru Primera División · Clausura - 17

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau

· Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua

Alin prediction UCV Moquegua to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UCV MoqueguaDrawAtletico Grau
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — UCV Moquegua is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
UCV Moquegua1.52 Draw4.20 Atletico Grau6.54

Price as of

Expected return at 1.52: -16.5% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau preview

In the fixture between UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau, the 1X2 probabilities show UCV Moquegua at 55%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%. Atletico Grau has a 20% chance of winning, which could change the outcome if they perform better than expected.

Both teams to score stands at 44%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 36%. UCV Moquegua's recent form includes three draws and three losses, while Atletico Grau has one win and two draws in their last six matches. The expected goals are close, with UCV Moquegua at 1.06 and Atletico Grau at 1.08, indicating a potentially tight match.

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUCV MoqueguaDrawAtletico Grau
Model33%32%34%
Market62%23%15%
Published55%25%20%
Edge-7%+2%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau odds movement

Median bookmaker price on UCV Moquegua, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.

Opened 1.81Now 1.48 -0.33
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
UCV Moquegua1.811.48-0.33
Draw3.404.00+0.60
Atletico Grau4.256.19+1.94

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06UCV Moquegua
1.08Atletico Grau
Total expected goals
2.14
Attack rating (UCV Moquegua / Atletico Grau)
0.57 / 0.94
Defence rating (UCV Moquegua / Atletico Grau)
1.08 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.1% 11.4% 6.9% 2.5% 0.8% 1 11.1% 14.8% 7.3% 2.6% 0.9% 2 6.6% 7.1% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 3 2.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: UCV Moquegua goals. Columns: Atletico Grau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2UCV Moquegua55%1.82
Draw25%3.95
Atletico Grau20%5.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.77
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.25
No56%1.80
Double chance1X (UCV Moquegua or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Atletico Grau)45%2.22
Handicap -1UCV Moquegua win by 2+14%7.39
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau recent form

UCV Moquegua 1W 2D 3L
Atletico Grau 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

UCV Moquegua at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-6-6
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
1.31
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).

Atletico Grau away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-11
Win rate
12%
Goals for / match
0.69
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: UCV Moquegua at home only, Atletico Grau away only.

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: UCV Moquegua 0 · draws 0 · Atletico Grau 1.

UCV MoqueguaDrawsAtletico Grau
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-29Atletico Grau1-0UCV MoqueguaPeru Primera División

Other Clausura - 17 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot UCV Moquegua to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on UCV Moquegua
Our pick: UCV Moquegua to win 18+ Bet Now