Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar preview
In the fixture between Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar, the 1X2 probabilities show FBC Melgar at 41% and Alianza Atletico at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 66%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 64%.
Alianza Atletico's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 losses, while FBC Melgar has 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.78 for Alianza Atletico and 1.54 for FBC Melgar. The head-to-head record shows Alianza Atletico with 2 wins, FBC Melgar with 4 wins, and 4 draws in their last 10 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Atletico | Draw | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FBC Melgar, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 3.24 | 3.15 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.39 | -0.06 |
| FBC Melgar | 2.05 | 2.13 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Alianza Atletico / FBC Melgar)
- 1.19 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Alianza Atletico / FBC Melgar)
- 1.27 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Atletico goals. Columns: FBC Melgar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Atletico | 33% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| FBC Melgar | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Atletico or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or FBC Melgar) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win by 2+ | 16% | 6.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar recent form
Alianza Atletico
3W 0D 3L
FBC Melgar
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Atletico at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FBC Melgar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Atletico at home only, FBC Melgar away only.
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alianza Atletico 2 · draws 4 · FBC Melgar 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | FBC Melgar | 3-1 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-08-01 | Alianza Atletico | 0-0 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-02-24 | FBC Melgar | 2-1 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-07-25 | Alianza Atletico | 3-1 | FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| 2024-02-10 | FBC Melgar | 1-0 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2023-09-15 | FBC Melgar | 4-0 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2023-04-24 | Alianza Atletico | 3-3 | FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| 2022-10-30 | FBC Melgar | 0-1 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2022-07-03 | Alianza Atletico | 0-0 | FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| 2021-08-13 | Alianza Atletico | 3-3 | FBC Melgar | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano 2026-11-14
- Alianza Lima v FC Cajamarca — match page 2026-11-14
- Sport Huancayo vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys 2026-11-15
- Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso 2026-11-15
- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- Cusco vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- UCV Moquegua v Atletico Grau — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Alianza Atletico, previous: FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico analysis
- FBC Melgar, previous: FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College prediction