Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys preview
In the match between Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys, the 1X2 probabilities show Comerciantes Unidos at 48% and Sport Boys at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 51%.
Comerciantes Unidos has a recent form of D-D-D-W-L-D, while Sport Boys has D-D-W-W-L-L. The expected goals are 1.51 for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.20 for Sport Boys. Recent head-to-head results show Comerciantes Unidos with 2 wins, 3 draws, and Sport Boys with 3 wins over the last 8 encounters. A draw or a low-scoring match could challenge the predictions.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys: model vs market
| Source | Comerciantes Unidos | Draw | Sport Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.20.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Comerciantes Unidos, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1.77 | 1.87 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.52 | -0.18 |
| Sport Boys | 4.16 | 3.75 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Comerciantes Unidos / Sport Boys)
- 1.07 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Comerciantes Unidos / Sport Boys)
- 1.11 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Comerciantes Unidos goals. Columns: Sport Boys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Sport Boys | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Comerciantes Unidos or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sport Boys) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Comerciantes Unidos win by 2+ | 22% | 4.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys recent form
Comerciantes Unidos
1W 4D 1L
Sport Boys
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Comerciantes Unidos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Boys away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-9
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Comerciantes Unidos at home only, Sport Boys away only.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Comerciantes Unidos 2 · draws 3 · Sport Boys 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Sport Boys | 1-0 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-13 | Sport Boys | 0-1 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-04-13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-4 | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-10-24 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-0 | Sport Boys | Primera División |
| 2024-05-11 | Sport Boys | 1-1 | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| 2019-06-29 | Sport Boys | 0-0 | Comerciantes Unidos | Copa Bicentenario |
| 2018-09-25 | Comerciantes Unidos | 3-2 | Sport Boys | Primera División |
| 2018-06-07 | Sport Boys | 2-1 | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano 2026-11-14
- Alianza Lima v FC Cajamarca — match page 2026-11-14
- Sport Huancayo vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page 2026-11-14
- Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso 2026-11-15
- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- Cusco vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- UCV Moquegua v Atletico Grau — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Comerciantes Unidos, previous: Deportivo Garcilaso – Comerciantes Unidos, 2026-11-08
- Sport Boys, previous: Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca: odds and pick