Cusco vs ADT preview
In the Peru Primera División match between Cusco and ADT, the 1X2 probabilities show Cusco at 59%, while ADT sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Cusco has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to ADT's 0.92, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.
However, the prediction could be challenged by both teams' recent form. Cusco has recorded L-L-W-W-L-L, while ADT has a more stable D-D-W-D-L-D. Additionally, the model indicates a 46% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score, which could lead to a different outcome than anticipated.
Cusco vs ADT: model vs market
| Source | Cusco | Draw | ADT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cusco vs ADT odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cusco, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cusco | 1.40 | 1.50 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 4.35 | 4.15 | -0.20 |
| ADT | 7.30 | 5.50 | -1.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cusco and ADT expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Cusco / ADT)
- 0.91 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Cusco / ADT)
- 1.05 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cusco vs ADT score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cusco goals. Columns: ADT goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cusco vs ADT goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cusco vs ADT
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| ADT | 18% | 5.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cusco or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or ADT) | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cusco win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cusco and ADT recent form
Cusco
2W 0D 4L
ADT
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cusco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-4
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 10 penalties (60%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ADT away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-9
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cusco at home only, ADT away only.
Cusco vs ADT head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Cusco 5 · draws 0 · ADT 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | ADT | 1-2 | Cusco | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-23 | Cusco | 0-2 | ADT | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-04-28 | ADT | 2-1 | Cusco | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-09-17 | ADT | 1-2 | Cusco | Primera División |
| 2024-04-15 | Cusco | 3-2 | ADT | Primera División |
| 2023-09-02 | Cusco | 1-0 | ADT | Primera División |
| 2023-04-16 | ADT | 0-2 | Cusco | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano 2026-11-14
- Alianza Lima v FC Cajamarca — match page 2026-11-14
- Sport Huancayo vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page 2026-11-14
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys 2026-11-15
- Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso 2026-11-15
- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- UCV Moquegua v Atletico Grau — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Cusco, previous: Atletico Grau v Cusco analysis
- ADT, previous: ADT vs Sporting Cristal prediction