Updated

Peru Primera División · Clausura - 17

Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso

· Estadio Complejo Juan Pablo II, Chongoyape

Alin prediction Juan Pablo II College to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Juan Pablo II CollegeDrawDeportivo Garcilaso
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.27.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Juan Pablo II College2.75 Draw3.40 Deportivo Garcilaso2.62

Price as of

Expected return at 2.75: +4.0% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso preview

Juan Pablo II College faces Deportivo Garcilaso with 36% chances for both teams to win, while a draw sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The model suggests a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.

Juan Pablo II College has an expected goals figure of 1.69 compared to Deportivo Garcilaso's 1.27. Recent form shows Juan Pablo II College with L-L-W-L-W-D, while Deportivo Garcilaso has D-W-L-W-L-L. Despite the equal 1X2 probabilities, Deportivo Garcilaso has won all three of their last head-to-head matches against Juan Pablo II College.

Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJuan Pablo II CollegeDrawDeportivo Garcilaso
Model46%26%28%
Market35%28%37%
Published38%28%34%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.27.
  • The market prices Juan Pablo II College below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juan Pablo II College, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.

Opened 2.25Now 2.62 +0.38
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Juan Pablo II College2.252.62+0.38
Draw3.503.25-0.25
Deportivo Garcilaso2.832.50-0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Juan Pablo II College
1.27Deportivo Garcilaso
Total expected goals
2.95
Attack rating (Juan Pablo II College / Deportivo Garcilaso)
1.08 / 1.33
Defence rating (Juan Pablo II College / Deportivo Garcilaso)
0.90 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 5.5% 4.2% 1.8% 0.7% 1 7.7% 12.3% 7.1% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.4% 9.4% 5.9% 2.5% 1.0% 3 4.2% 5.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 2.6% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Juan Pablo II College goals. Columns: Deportivo Garcilaso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Juan Pablo II College38%2.65
Draw28%3.60
Deportivo Garcilaso34%2.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.77
Under 2.543%2.30
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.68
No40%2.48
Double chance1X (Juan Pablo II College or draw)66%1.53
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Deportivo Garcilaso)62%1.61
Handicap -1Juan Pablo II College win by 2+25%3.99
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form

Juan Pablo II College 2W 1D 3L
Deportivo Garcilaso 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Juan Pablo II College at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-5-4
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.81
Goals against / match
1.31
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Garcilaso away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-8
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.81
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Juan Pablo II College at home only, Deportivo Garcilaso away only.

Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Juan Pablo II College 0 · draws 0 · Deportivo Garcilaso 3.

Juan Pablo II CollegeDrawsDeportivo Garcilaso
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-30Deportivo Garcilaso4-1Juan Pablo II CollegePeru Primera División
2025-10-13Juan Pablo II College0-1Deportivo GarcilasoPeru Primera División
2025-05-25Deportivo Garcilaso4-0Juan Pablo II CollegePeru Primera División

Other Clausura - 17 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Juan Pablo II College to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Juan Pablo II College
Our pick: Juan Pablo II College to win 18+ Bet Now