Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas preview
Atletico Grau faces Club Deportivo Los Chankas in the Peru Primera División, with a 60% probability of winning according to the model. The expected goals suggest a strong performance from Atletico Grau at 2.52, while Club Deportivo Los Chankas is expected to score only 0.86. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the 66% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
However, the recent form could complicate matters. Atletico Grau has fluctuated with three wins and two losses in their last five matches, while Club Deportivo Los Chankas has struggled significantly, with six consecutive losses. Additionally, the head-to-head record shows that Club Deportivo Los Chankas has won five of the last ten encounters, indicating they can be competitive.
Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Grau | Draw | Club Deportivo Los Chankas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | +17% | -8% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico Grau below the model: +16.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Grau, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 1.60 | 1.65 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.69 | -0.11 |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 5.00 | 4.85 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Grau and Club Deportivo Los Chankas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (Atletico Grau / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 1.00 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Atletico Grau / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 0.99 / 1.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Grau goals. Columns: Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Grau | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17% | 5.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Grau or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas) | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Grau win by 2+ | 52% | 1.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Grau and Club Deportivo Los Chankas recent form
Atletico Grau
4W 0D 2L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Grau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-4
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-5
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Grau at home only, Club Deportivo Los Chankas away only.
Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico Grau 3 · draws 2 · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 2-0 | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-08-10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3-2 | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-03-10 | Atletico Grau | 2-1 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-08-21 | Atletico Grau | 1-1 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Primera División |
| 2024-03-15 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 0-1 | Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| 2021-09-16 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3-1 | Atletico Grau | Segunda División |
| 2021-07-16 | Atletico Grau | 0-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Segunda División |
| 2019-09-21 | Atletico Grau | 6-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Segunda División |
| 2019-06-09 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 2-1 | Atletico Grau | Segunda División |
| 2018-07-22 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 2-1 | Atletico Grau | Segunda División |
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