UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano preview
In the match between UCV Moquegua and Cienciano, the key number is Cienciano's 45% probability to win compared to UCV Moquegua's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Cienciano's expected goals of 1.53 against UCV Moquegua's 1.05.
However, the match could deviate from this outcome if UCV Moquegua improves their form, as they have a recent record of L-L-L-L-W-D. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a chance for UCV Moquegua to find the net. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting the uncertainty in the match.
UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano: model vs market
| Source | UCV Moquegua | Draw | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cienciano below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cienciano, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCV Moquegua | 3.40 | 3.27 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.40 | -0.08 |
| Cienciano | 1.98 | 2.05 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
UCV Moquegua and Cienciano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (UCV Moquegua / Cienciano)
- 0.60 / 1.15
- Defence rating (UCV Moquegua / Cienciano)
- 1.26 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UCV Moquegua goals. Columns: Cienciano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCV Moquegua | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Cienciano | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UCV Moquegua or draw) | 55% | 1.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Cienciano) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cienciano win by 2+ | 24% | 4.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
UCV Moquegua and Cienciano recent form
UCV Moquegua
1W 1D 4L
Cienciano
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UCV Moquegua at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
Cienciano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
League matches this season before kick-off: UCV Moquegua at home only, Cienciano away only.
UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: UCV Moquegua 0 · draws 0 · Cienciano 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Cienciano | 2-1 | UCV Moquegua | Peru Primera División |
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