Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico: model vs market
| Source | Sport Boys | Draw | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 25% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | +10% | -2% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.85.
- The market prices Sport Boys below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sport Boys, 16 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | 2.10 | 1.90 | -0.20 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.43 | +0.17 |
| Alianza Atletico | 3.28 | 3.75 | +0.47 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Sport Boys / Alianza Atletico)
- 0.97 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Sport Boys / Alianza Atletico)
- 0.63 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Boys goals. Columns: Alianza Atletico goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Alianza Atletico | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Boys or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Atletico) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Boys win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico recent form
Sport Boys
3W 2D 1L
Alianza Atletico
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Boys at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Atletico away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-8
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.79
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Boys at home only, Alianza Atletico away only.
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sport Boys 1 · draws 0 · Alianza Atletico 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Alianza Atletico | 0-1 | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-11-16 | Sport Boys | 0-1 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-07-12 | Alianza Atletico | 1-0 | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División |
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