Ayr Utd vs Partick preview
Ayr Utd faces Partick with 21% chances for a home win, while Partick has a 42% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 19% rate. Ayr Utd's expected goals stand at 0.59, compared to Partick's 0.97, indicating a potential struggle for the home side to score.
Ayr Utd's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Partick has 2 wins and 4 draws. With both teams to score at 29% and Over 2.5 goals at 21%, there could be fewer goals than expected. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Ayr Utd vs Partick: model vs market
| Source | Ayr Utd | Draw | Partick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 37% | 42% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 37% | 42% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.59.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ayr Utd and Partick expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.56
- Attack rating (Ayr Utd / Partick)
- 0.85 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Ayr Utd / Partick)
- 1.02 / 0.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ayr Utd vs Partick score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ayr Utd goals. Columns: Partick goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ayr Utd vs Partick goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 22%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ayr Utd vs Partick
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 21% | 4.85 |
| Draw | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Partick | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21% | 4.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.46 |
| No | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ayr Utd or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| X2 (draw or Partick) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Partick win by 2+ | 17% | 6.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Ayr Utd and Partick recent form
Ayr Utd
2W 1D 3L
Partick
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ayr Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Partick away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ayr Utd at home only, Partick away only.
Ayr Utd vs Partick head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ayr Utd 2 · draws 2 · Partick 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Partick | 1-0 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-04-04 | Ayr Utd | 1-1 | Partick | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-01-24 | Partick | 2-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-12-06 | Ayr Utd | 0-0 | Partick | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-10-21 | Partick | 2-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-08-16 | Partick | 2-0 | Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| 2025-05-09 | Ayr Utd | 0-2 | Partick | Premiership |
| 2025-05-06 | Partick | 0-1 | Ayr Utd | Premiership |
| 2025-03-15 | Partick | 2-0 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2025-01-25 | Ayr Utd | 2-1 | Partick | Championship |
Before and after this match
- Ayr Utd, previous: Ayr Utd – Dunfermline, 2026-10-10
- Partick, previous: Livingston v Partick analysis