Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline: model vs market
| Source | Ayr Utd | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 37% | 34% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Published | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Edge | -2% | +8% | -7% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dunfermline, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.19 | -0.01 |
| Dunfermline | 2.26 | 2.22 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.67
- Attack rating (Ayr Utd / Dunfermline)
- 0.85 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Ayr Utd / Dunfermline)
- 1.02 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ayr Utd goals. Columns: Dunfermline goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 30% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Dunfermline | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.00 |
| No | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ayr Utd or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Dunfermline) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win by 2+ | 12% | 8.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline recent form
Ayr Utd
2W 1D 3L
Dunfermline
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ayr Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dunfermline away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ayr Utd at home only, Dunfermline away only.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ayr Utd 2 · draws 1 · Dunfermline 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Dunfermline | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-04-07 | Ayr Utd | 0-3 | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-12-20 | Dunfermline | 2-3 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-10-31 | Ayr Utd | 0-1 | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-09-23 | Dunfermline | 0-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Livingston vs Partick — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir 2026-10-10
- Raith Rovers v Queen's Park — match page 2026-10-10
- Arbroath vs Morton 2026-10-10