Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir: model vs market
| Source | Inverness CT | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 32% | 48% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | -33% | +6% | +27% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inverness CT, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inverness CT | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.44 | -0.12 |
| Stenhousemuir | 4.30 | 4.32 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.93
- Attack rating (Inverness CT / Stenhousemuir)
- 1.02 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Inverness CT / Stenhousemuir)
- 0.97 / 0.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inverness CT goals. Columns: Stenhousemuir goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inverness CT | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Stenhousemuir | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.74 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inverness CT or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Stenhousemuir) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inverness CT win by 2+ | 6% | 17.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir recent form
Inverness CT
2W 2D 2L
Stenhousemuir
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inverness CT at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stenhousemuir away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inverness CT at home only, Stenhousemuir away only.
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Inverness CT 3 · draws 4 · Stenhousemuir 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Stenhousemuir | 3-1 | Inverness CT | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-04-11 | Stenhousemuir | 1-1 | Inverness CT | League One |
| 2026-02-21 | Inverness CT | 1-1 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2026-01-27 | Inverness CT | 1-0 | Stenhousemuir | Challenge Cup |
| 2025-12-20 | Stenhousemuir | 1-0 | Inverness CT | League One |
| 2025-08-16 | Inverness CT | 1-2 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2025-04-19 | Stenhousemuir | 1-1 | Inverness CT | League One |
| 2025-03-11 | Inverness CT | 4-1 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2024-12-21 | Stenhousemuir | 0-1 | Inverness CT | League One |
| 2024-09-28 | Inverness CT | 0-0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
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