Arbroath vs Morton: model vs market
| Source | Arbroath | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 33% | 23% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Published | 50% | 28% | 21% |
| Edge | -7% | +6% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Arbroath vs Morton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arbroath, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Morton | 4.50 | 4.33 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arbroath and Morton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.97
- Attack rating (Arbroath / Morton)
- 0.62 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Arbroath / Morton)
- 1.09 / 1.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arbroath vs Morton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arbroath goals. Columns: Morton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arbroath vs Morton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arbroath vs Morton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Morton | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arbroath or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Morton) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arbroath win by 2+ | 20% | 4.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arbroath and Morton recent form
Arbroath
2W 1D 3L
Morton
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arbroath at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Morton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arbroath at home only, Morton away only.
Arbroath vs Morton head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Arbroath 1 · draws 2 · Morton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Morton | 1-2 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-03-28 | Morton | 2-1 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-01-23 | Arbroath | 1-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-11-08 | Morton | 1-0 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-09-20 | Arbroath | 1-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
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