Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk preview
In the upcoming match between Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk, the 1X2 probabilities show Heart Of Midlothian at 57% to win, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 9%. Both teams to score sits at 61%, suggesting a strong chance for goals from both sides.
However, Heart Of Midlothian's recent form is mixed with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Falkirk has a stronger form with 4 wins in their last 5. This could impact the expected goals, which are 1.59 for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.40 for Falkirk. If Falkirk continues their winning streak, the predicted outcome may not hold.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk: model vs market
| Source | Heart Of Midlothian | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Published | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heart Of Midlothian, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 1.50 | 1.53 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.04 |
| Falkirk | 5.80 | 5.05 | -0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Heart Of Midlothian / Falkirk)
- 1.12 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Heart Of Midlothian / Falkirk)
- 1.26 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Columns: Falkirk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Falkirk | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heart Of Midlothian or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Falkirk) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heart Of Midlothian win by 2+ | 17% | 5.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
1W 2D 3L
Falkirk
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heart Of Midlothian at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkirk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian at home only, Falkirk away only.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Heart Of Midlothian 7 · draws 1 · Falkirk 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Falkirk | 2-1 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-05-13 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-02-21 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-17 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1-1 | Falkirk | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2025-12-13 | Falkirk | 0-2 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-09-27 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2024-08-17 | Falkirk | 2-0 | Heart Of Midlothian | League Cup |
| 2021-07-03 | Heart Of Midlothian | 4-0 | Falkirk | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-02-08 | Falkirk | 0-1 | Heart Of Midlothian | FA Cup |
| 2015-03-21 | Falkirk | 0-3 | Heart Of Midlothian | Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Heart Of Midlothian, previous: FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction
- Heart Of Midlothian, next: Heart Of Midlothian vs Monaco prediction
- Falkirk, previous: Falkirk – Celtic, 2026-11-01