Falkirk vs Celtic preview
In the Scotland Premiership fixture between Falkirk and Celtic, the 1X2 probabilities show Celtic at 63% to win, compared to Falkirk's 18%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 67%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 65%.
Falkirk's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Celtic has 3 wins and 3 losses. Despite Falkirk's decent form, they have not won against Celtic in their last 8 encounters, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Falkirk vs Celtic: model vs market
| Source | Falkirk | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Published | 18% | 20% | 63% |
| Edge | +5% | +2% | -7% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Falkirk vs Celtic odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 7.50 | 7.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.25 | -0.25 |
| Celtic | 1.30 | 1.33 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Falkirk and Celtic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Falkirk / Celtic)
- 0.98 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Falkirk / Celtic)
- 1.04 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Falkirk vs Celtic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Falkirk goals. Columns: Celtic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Falkirk vs Celtic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Falkirk vs Celtic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkirk | 18% | 5.65 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.13 | |
| Celtic | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Falkirk or draw) | 37% | 2.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Celtic) | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win by 2+ | 23% | 4.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Falkirk and Celtic recent form
Falkirk
3W 2D 1L
Celtic
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Falkirk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Celtic away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Falkirk at home only, Celtic away only.
Falkirk vs Celtic head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Falkirk 0 · draws 0 · Celtic 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Celtic | 2-1 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-04-25 | Celtic | 3-1 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-02-01 | Celtic | 2-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-14 | Falkirk | 0-1 | Celtic | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-29 | Celtic | 4-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-15 | Celtic | 4-1 | Falkirk | League Cup |
| 2024-09-22 | Celtic | 5-2 | Falkirk | League Cup |
| 2021-04-03 | Celtic | 3-0 | Falkirk | FA Cup |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Motherwell vs ST Mirren 2026-10-31
- Rangers v Aberdeen — match page 2026-10-31
- Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hibernian v Dundee — match page 2026-11-24
Before and after this match
- Falkirk, previous: Aberdeen vs Falkirk prediction
- Celtic, previous: Celtic v Dundee Utd analysis
- Celtic, next: Celtic vs Beşiktaş: odds and pick