Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone preview
Kilmarnock faces ST Johnstone with 35% chances for Kilmarnock to win, 27% for a draw, and 38% for ST Johnstone to win. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with 59% for both teams to score and a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Kilmarnock's expected goals stand at 1.44, while ST Johnstone's is slightly lower at 1.40. Recent form shows Kilmarnock with L-W-L-D-W-D, and ST Johnstone with L-D-W-D-L-W. The head-to-head record shows ST Johnstone winning the last encounter. A low confidence grade of C indicates potential unpredictability in the match outcome.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone: model vs market
| Source | Kilmarnock | Draw | ST Johnstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 40% |
| Published | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone odds movement
Median bookmaker price on ST Johnstone, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 2.75 | 2.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.52 | +0.02 |
| ST Johnstone | 2.30 | 2.36 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Kilmarnock / ST Johnstone)
- 0.96 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Kilmarnock / ST Johnstone)
- 1.28 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kilmarnock goals. Columns: ST Johnstone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kilmarnock | 35% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| ST Johnstone | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kilmarnock or draw) | 62% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or ST Johnstone) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Johnstone win by 2+ | 17% | 5.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone recent form
Kilmarnock
2W 2D 2L
ST Johnstone
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kilmarnock at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ST Johnstone away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kilmarnock at home only, ST Johnstone away only.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Kilmarnock 0 · draws 0 · ST Johnstone 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | ST Johnstone | 4-3 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Motherwell vs ST Mirren 2026-10-31
- Rangers v Aberdeen — match page 2026-10-31
- Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Falkirk vs Celtic 2026-11-01
- Hibernian v Dundee — match page 2026-11-24
Before and after this match
- Kilmarnock, previous: Dundee – Kilmarnock, 2026-10-28
- ST Johnstone, previous: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell: odds and pick