Updated

Serie A · Matchday 11

Fiorentina vs Juventus

· Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence

Alin prediction Juventus to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FiorentinaDrawJuventus
  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Fiorentina3.70 Draw3.70 Juventus2.16

Price as of

Expected return at 2.16: +9.9% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Fiorentina vs Juventus preview

Fiorentina faces Juventus with a 23% chance of winning compared to Juventus's 51%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Juventus's expected goals of 1.97 against Fiorentina's 1.06.

Both teams to score stands at 61%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 60%. Fiorentina's recent form shows 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Juventus has won 4 out of their last 6. The head-to-head record is balanced with each team having 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 encounters. A surprise could come if Fiorentina's form improves significantly or if Juventus underperforms.

Why this pick: Fiorentina vs Juventus

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fiorentina 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FiorentinaJuventus
1.64 xG per 90 1.40
1.64 npxG per 90 1.40
12.9 PPDA 11.1
9.0 Deep completions per 90 11.2
1.37 xPTS per 90 1.84

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Fiorentina vs Juventus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFiorentinaDrawJuventus
Model20%26%54%
Market25%26%50%
Published23%26%51%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Fiorentina vs Juventus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 1.78Now 2.10 +0.32
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fiorentina4.643.40-1.24
Draw4.233.55-0.68
Juventus1.782.10+0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fiorentina and Juventus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.63Fiorentina
1.83Juventus
Total expected goals
3.46
Attack rating (Fiorentina / Juventus)
1.38 / 1.21
Defence rating (Fiorentina / Juventus)
1.22 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fiorentina vs Juventus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 3.9% 5.3% 3.2% 2.2% 1 3.3% 11.3% 8.6% 5.2% 3.6% 2 4.2% 7.6% 7.0% 4.3% 3.0% 3 2.3% 4.1% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 4+ 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.9%

Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fiorentina vs Juventus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fiorentina vs Juventus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fiorentina23%4.27
Draw26%3.90
Juventus51%1.96
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.50
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.65
No39%2.54
Double chance1X (Fiorentina or draw)49%2.04
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Juventus)77%1.31
Handicap -1Juventus win by 2+23%4.31
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Fiorentina and Juventus recent form

Fiorentina 1W 2D 3L
Juventus 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fiorentina at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Juventus away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fiorentina at home only, Juventus away only.

Injuries & availability

Fiorentina absences

  • R. Sottil back injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Fiorentina vs Juventus head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Fiorentina 2 · draws 2 · Juventus 2.

FiorentinaDrawsJuventus
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Juventus0-2FiorentinaSerie A
2025-11-22Fiorentina1-1JuventusSerie A
2025-03-16Fiorentina3-0JuventusSerie A
2024-12-29Juventus2-2FiorentinaSerie A
2024-04-07Juventus1-0FiorentinaSerie A
2023-11-05Fiorentina0-1JuventusSerie A

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Juventus to win Predicted score 1 – 2 A Bet on Juventus
Our pick: Juventus to win 18+ Bet Now