Torino vs Lecce preview
In the Serie A fixture between Torino and Lecce, the 1X2 probabilities show Torino at 49%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). The model predicts a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score also at 69%. Torino's expected goals stand at 2.08, while Lecce's are at 1.48.
Torino's recent form includes 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Lecce has 2 wins and 4 losses in the same period. However, Lecce's ability to score could challenge Torino's defense, making the prediction less certain. The head-to-head record shows Torino with 3 wins, 1 draw, and Lecce with 2 wins in their last 6 encounters.
Why this pick: Torino vs Lecce
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Lecce 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Torino vs Lecce: model vs market
| Source | Torino | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Torino vs Lecce odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Torino, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 2.01 | 1.83 | -0.18 |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.60 | -0.21 |
| Lecce | 3.92 | 4.47 | +0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torino and Lecce expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (Torino / Lecce)
- 0.90 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Torino / Lecce)
- 1.11 / 1.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torino vs Lecce score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Lecce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torino vs Lecce goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torino vs Lecce
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Lecce | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torino or draw) | 77% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Lecce) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Torino win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Torino and Lecce recent form
Torino
3W 1D 2L
Lecce
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lecce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Lecce away only.
Injuries & availability
Torino absences
-
P. Pellegri
jumpers knee
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Torino vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Torino 6 · draws 1 · Lecce 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Torino | 1-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2025-11-30 | Lecce | 2-1 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2025-05-18 | Lecce | 1-0 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2024-09-15 | Torino | 0-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2024-02-16 | Torino | 2-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-10-28 | Lecce | 0-1 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2023-03-12 | Lecce | 0-2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2022-09-05 | Torino | 1-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2020-10-28 | Torino | 3-1 | Lecce | Coppa Italia |
| 2020-02-02 | Lecce | 4-0 | Torino | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Venezia v Udinese — match page 2026-11-06
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Torino, previous: Frosinone vs Torino prediction
- Lecce, previous: Lecce – Genoa, 2026-11-01