Frosinone vs Torino preview
Frosinone faces Torino with a 39% chance of winning compared to Torino's 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the model's expectation of 1.85 goals for Frosinone and 1.79 for Torino. With a strong 70% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, this match could see multiple goals.
However, Frosinone's recent form shows 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while Torino has won 4 of their last 6. The head-to-head record shows 2 draws and no wins for either side, which could influence the outcome. A draw could disrupt the expected scoreline and goal totals.
Why this pick: Frosinone vs Torino
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Frosinone 10, Torino 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Frosinone vs Torino: model vs market
| Source | Frosinone | Draw | Torino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Frosinone vs Torino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Frosinone, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| Torino | 2.90 | 2.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Frosinone and Torino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Frosinone / Torino)
- 1.41 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Frosinone / Torino)
- 1.48 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Frosinone vs Torino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Frosinone goals. Columns: Torino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Frosinone vs Torino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Frosinone vs Torino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Torino | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Frosinone or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Torino) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win by 2+ | 21% | 4.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Frosinone and Torino recent form
Frosinone
3W 2D 1L
Torino
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Frosinone at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Torino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Frosinone at home only, Torino away only.
Frosinone vs Torino head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Frosinone 0 · draws 2 · Torino 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-21 | Torino | 0-0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2023-12-10 | Frosinone | 0-0 | Torino | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Udinese vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- AC Milan v Inter — match page 2026-10-31
- Lazio vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
- Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
- Como vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Frosinone, previous: Frosinone – Lecce, 2026-10-29
- Torino, previous: Torino vs Como prediction