Juventus vs Napoli preview
In the Serie A match between Juventus and Napoli, the 1X2 probabilities favor Juventus at 58%, compared to Napoli's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with Juventus expected to score 2.29 goals and Napoli 1.30. The high probability of Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 67% indicates a potentially open match.
However, recent form shows Juventus with a mixed record of D-L-W-D-W-W, while Napoli has a similar pattern of D-W-L-L-W-D. Napoli's past success against Juventus, with 3 wins in their last 6 encounters, could challenge the predictions. If Napoli finds their scoring touch, the expected outcomes may shift.
Why this pick: Juventus vs Napoli
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, Napoli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Juventus vs Napoli: model vs market
| Source | Juventus | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Juventus vs Napoli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Napoli | 4.07 | 4.07 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Juventus and Napoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Juventus / Napoli)
- 1.39 / 1.55
- Defence rating (Juventus / Napoli)
- 0.71 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juventus vs Napoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juventus vs Napoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juventus vs Napoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 51% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Napoli | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juventus or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Napoli) | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Juventus and Napoli recent form
Juventus
3W 2D 1L
Napoli
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juventus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Napoli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Juventus at home only, Napoli away only.
Juventus vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Juventus 2 · draws 1 · Napoli 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Juventus | 3-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2025-12-07 | Napoli | 2-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2025-01-25 | Napoli | 2-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-09-21 | Juventus | 0-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-03-03 | Napoli | 2-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2023-12-08 | Juventus | 1-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Udinese vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- AC Milan v Inter — match page 2026-10-31
- Lazio vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
- Como vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Juventus, previous: Genoa – Juventus, 2026-10-28
- Juventus, next: AZ Alkmaar – Juventus, 2026-11-05
- Napoli, previous: Monza vs Napoli prediction
- Napoli, next: FC Porto v Napoli analysis