AC Milan vs Inter preview
In the Serie A fixture between AC Milan and Inter, the 1X2 probabilities show Inter at 51%, while AC Milan sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.86 for AC Milan and 2.51 for Inter.
Both teams to score has a strong likelihood at 79%, and Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 81%. However, AC Milan's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Inter's form is stronger, with 4 wins in their last 6, suggesting they may capitalize on any defensive lapses from AC Milan.
Why this pick: AC Milan vs Inter
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Inter 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
AC Milan vs Inter: model vs market
| Source | AC Milan | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Published | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.91.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AC Milan vs Inter odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 2.75 | 2.98 | +0.23 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.60 | +0.21 |
| Inter | 2.40 | 2.26 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AC Milan and Inter expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.37
- Attack rating (AC Milan / Inter)
- 1.41 / 1.78
- Defence rating (AC Milan / Inter)
- 1.15 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AC Milan vs Inter score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AC Milan vs Inter goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AC Milan vs Inter
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Inter | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.26 |
| No | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AC Milan or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 31% | 3.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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AC Milan and Inter recent form
AC Milan
4W 1D 1L
Inter
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AC Milan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Inter away only.
AC Milan vs Inter head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AC Milan 3 · draws 1 · Inter 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | AC Milan | 1-0 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-11-23 | Inter | 0-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-02-02 | AC Milan | 1-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-09-22 | Inter | 1-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-04-22 | AC Milan | 1-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2023-09-16 | Inter | 5-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Bologna vs Monza — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Udinese vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lazio vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
- Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- AC Milan, previous: AC Milan vs Bologna prediction
- AC Milan, next: AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC analysis
- Inter, previous: Venezia v Inter analysis
- Inter, next: Feyenoord v Inter analysis