Como vs Venezia preview
Como faces Venezia with a 66% probability of winning compared to Venezia's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with an 87% chance of Over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance for both teams to score. Como's expected goals stand at 3.21, while Venezia's are at 1.73.
Como's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Venezia has lost 5 in a row. The head-to-head record shows 2 draws and no wins for either team. If Como's form dips or Venezia finds a way to improve their performance, the expected outcomes could shift.
Why this pick: Como vs Venezia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Como 10, Venezia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Como vs Venezia: model vs market
| Source | Como | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 17% | 17% |
| Market | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Published | 71% | 16% | 12% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.20 vs 1.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Como vs Venezia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Como, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.90 | 5.90 | +0.00 |
| Venezia | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Como and Venezia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.93
- Attack rating (Como / Venezia)
- 1.74 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Como / Venezia)
- 1.11 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Como vs Venezia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Como goals. Columns: Venezia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Como vs Venezia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Como vs Venezia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 71% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.13 | |
| Venezia | 12% | 8.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87% | 1.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 13% | 7.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Como or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Venezia) | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Como and Venezia recent form
Como
3W 1D 2L
Venezia
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Como at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Venezia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Como at home only, Venezia away only.
Como vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Como 0 · draws 2 · Venezia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Como | 1-1 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2024-12-08 | Venezia | 2-2 | Como | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- AC Milan v Inter — match page 2026-10-31
- Lazio vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
- Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Como, previous: Torino vs Como prediction
- Como, next: Lens v Como analysis
- Venezia, previous: Venezia v Inter analysis