Lecce vs Genoa preview
In the Serie A fixture between Lecce and Genoa, the 1X2 probabilities show Lecce at 35% and Genoa at 35%, indicating a balanced matchup. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which occurs at an 8% probability. With expected goals of 1.54 for Lecce and 1.49 for Genoa, the game could lean towards a competitive finish.
The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 63%. However, Lecce's recent form includes three losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Genoa, on the other hand, has shown better form with three wins in their last six. This contrast might affect the final outcome.
Why this pick: Lecce vs Genoa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lecce 10, Genoa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lecce vs Genoa: model vs market
| Source | Lecce | Draw | Genoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Published | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lecce vs Genoa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Genoa, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 2.77 | 2.77 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.11 | 3.11 | +0.00 |
| Genoa | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lecce and Genoa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Lecce / Genoa)
- 1.13 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Lecce / Genoa)
- 1.40 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lecce vs Genoa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lecce goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lecce vs Genoa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lecce vs Genoa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 35% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Genoa | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lecce or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Genoa) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Genoa win by 2+ | 18% | 5.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lecce and Genoa recent form
Lecce
2W 0D 4L
Genoa
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lecce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Genoa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lecce at home only, Genoa away only.
Lecce vs Genoa head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lecce 2 · draws 2 · Genoa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Lecce | 1-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2025-08-23 | Genoa | 0-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2025-03-14 | Genoa | 2-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2025-01-05 | Lecce | 0-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2024-01-28 | Genoa | 2-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-09-22 | Lecce | 1-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Udinese vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- AC Milan v Inter — match page 2026-10-31
- Lazio vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
- Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Como vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Lecce, previous: Frosinone – Lecce, 2026-10-29
- Genoa, previous: Genoa – Juventus, 2026-10-28