Updated

Serie A · Matchday 11

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna

· Ennio Tardini, Parma· Referee Luca Zufferli

Alin prediction Bologna to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Parma Calcio 1913DrawBologna
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.39.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bologna is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Parma Calcio 19134.63 Draw3.68 Bologna1.89

Price as of

Expected return at 1.89: -0.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna preview

In the Serie A fixture between Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna, the 1X2 probabilities show Bologna at 48%, while Parma is at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 61%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open match.

Parma's recent form is D-L-L-L-W-L, while Bologna has a stronger record with W-W-W-L-W-D. The expected goals for Parma is 1.16 compared to Bologna's 2.02. If Parma can improve their defensive performance or if Bologna underperforms, the predictions could shift.

Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Parma Calcio 1913Bologna
0.87 xG per 90 1.75
0.78 npxG per 90 1.59
16.9 PPDA 14.6
5.4 Deep completions per 90 4.4
0.67 xPTS per 90 1.67

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParma Calcio 1913DrawBologna
Model20%25%55%
Market21%27%52%
Published21%27%53%
Edge0%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 2.13Now 1.85 -0.28
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Parma Calcio 19133.714.50+0.79
Draw3.603.50-0.10
Bologna2.131.85-0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Parma Calcio 1913
1.81Bologna
Total expected goals
3.20
Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Bologna)
0.93 / 1.23
Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Bologna)
1.19 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 5.3% 6.7% 4.0% 2.7% 1 3.6% 12.3% 9.3% 5.6% 3.8% 2 4.0% 7.1% 6.5% 3.9% 2.6% 3 1.8% 3.3% 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Parma Calcio 191321%4.82
Draw27%3.76
Bologna53%1.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.59
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw)47%2.11
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Bologna)79%1.26
Handicap -1Bologna win by 2+26%3.87
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna recent form

Parma Calcio 1913 2W 1D 3L
Bologna 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Parma Calcio 1913 at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bologna away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Parma Calcio 1913 at home only, Bologna away only.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 2 · draws 3 · Bologna 5.

Parma Calcio 1913DrawsBologna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-08Bologna0-1Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2025-12-04Bologna2-1Parma Calcio 1913Coppa Italia
2025-11-02Parma Calcio 19131-3BolognaSerie A
2025-02-22Parma Calcio 19132-0BolognaSerie A
2024-10-06Bologna0-0Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2021-02-07Parma Calcio 19130-3BolognaSerie A
2020-09-28Bologna4-1Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2020-07-12Parma Calcio 19132-2BolognaSerie A
2019-11-24Bologna2-2Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2019-05-13Bologna4-1Parma Calcio 1913Serie A

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Bologna to win Predicted score 1 – 2 A Bet on Bologna
Our pick: Bologna to win 18+ Bet Now