Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 preview
Atalanta faces Parma Calcio 1913 with a 60% probability of winning, while the most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%. Atalanta has an expected goals figure of 2.26 compared to Parma's 1.20, suggesting a strong attacking performance from the home side.
However, recent form shows Atalanta with two losses in their last three matches, and Parma has also struggled, losing three of their last four. The model indicates a 67% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score. If Atalanta's defense falters or if Parma improves their form, the predicted outcome could change.
Why this pick: Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Parma Calcio 1913 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913: model vs market
| Source | Atalanta | Draw | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Published | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.42 | 1.42 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.76 | 4.76 | +0.00 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 7.40 | 7.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atalanta and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Atalanta / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.24 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Atalanta / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.30 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 14% | 7.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atalanta or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Parma Calcio 1913) | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win by 2+ | 39% | 2.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Atalanta and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form
Atalanta
2W 1D 3L
Parma Calcio 1913
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atalanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Parma Calcio 1913 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Parma Calcio 1913 away only.
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Atalanta 2 · draws 1 · Parma Calcio 1913 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Atalanta | 4-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2025-08-30 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2025-05-25 | Atalanta | 2-3 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2024-11-23 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1-3 | Atalanta | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
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Before and after this match
- Atalanta, previous: Fiorentina vs Atalanta: odds and pick
- Atalanta, next: Atalanta – Kairat Almaty, 2026-11-05
- Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese: odds and pick