Genoa vs Venezia preview
In the Serie A fixture between Genoa and Venezia, the 1X2 probabilities show Genoa at 45% to win, while both teams have a 28% chance of a draw or Venezia winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. With expected goals of 1.82 for Genoa and 1.59 for Venezia, there is a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 69%.
Genoa's recent form includes a mix of results: L-W-L-W-D-L, while Venezia has struggled, losing 6 straight matches. This disparity in form could influence the outcome, but if Venezia finds their scoring touch, it may challenge the expected goals and the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Why this pick: Genoa vs Venezia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Genoa 10, Venezia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Genoa vs Venezia: model vs market
| Source | Genoa | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | -4% | -2% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Genoa vs Venezia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Genoa, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 2.13 | 2.09 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.31 | 3.37 | +0.06 |
| Venezia | 3.60 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Genoa and Venezia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Genoa / Venezia)
- 0.93 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Genoa / Venezia)
- 0.99 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Genoa vs Venezia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Venezia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Genoa vs Venezia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Genoa vs Venezia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Venezia | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Genoa or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Venezia) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Genoa win by 2+ | 23% | 4.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Genoa and Venezia recent form
Genoa
2W 1D 3L
Venezia
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Genoa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Venezia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Genoa at home only, Venezia away only.
Genoa vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Genoa 1 · draws 0 · Venezia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-17 | Genoa | 2-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2024-09-21 | Venezia | 2-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Udinese vs AC Milan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Genoa, previous: Roma v Genoa analysis
- Venezia, previous: Venezia v Napoli analysis