Udinese vs AC Milan preview
In the Serie A fixture between Udinese and AC Milan, the 1X2 probabilities show AC Milan at 57%, compared to Udinese at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. AC Milan's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Udinese has lost 5 of their last 6.
The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with 74% for Over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score. Udinese has expected goals of 1.39, while AC Milan sits at 2.47. These figures indicate a strong attacking performance from AC Milan, but an unexpected defensive display from Udinese could alter the outcome.
Why this pick: Udinese vs AC Milan
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Udinese 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Udinese vs AC Milan: model vs market
| Source | Udinese | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| Market | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Published | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Edge | 0% | -3% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices AC Milan below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Udinese vs AC Milan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 4.36 | 5.00 | +0.64 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.85 | +0.17 |
| AC Milan | 1.81 | 1.67 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Udinese and AC Milan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.85
- Attack rating (Udinese / AC Milan)
- 0.99 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Udinese / AC Milan)
- 1.46 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Udinese vs AC Milan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Udinese goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Udinese vs AC Milan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Udinese vs AC Milan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 19% | 5.29 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| AC Milan | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Udinese or draw) | 43% | 2.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Milan) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win by 2+ | 40% | 2.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Udinese and AC Milan recent form
Udinese
1W 0D 5L
AC Milan
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Udinese at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
AC Milan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Udinese at home only, AC Milan away only.
Udinese vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Udinese 2 · draws 0 · AC Milan 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | AC Milan | 0-3 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2025-09-20 | Udinese | 0-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-04-11 | Udinese | 0-4 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-10-19 | AC Milan | 1-0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2024-01-20 | Udinese | 2-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2023-11-04 | AC Milan | 0-1 | Udinese | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Udinese, previous: Udinese – Lecce, 2026-10-18
- AC Milan, previous: Bournemouth – AC Milan, 2026-10-22
- AC Milan, next: AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC analysis