Cagliari vs Bologna preview
Cagliari faces Bologna with a 30% chance of winning compared to Bologna's 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which reflects Bologna's stronger recent form, having won 1 of their last 6 matches. Cagliari's expected goals stand at 1.40, while Bologna's is slightly higher at 1.53.
The model suggests a 56% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood of both teams to score. However, if Cagliari can improve their defensive performance, it could lead to a different outcome than expected. Their recent form shows inconsistency, with 3 wins in their last 6, while Bologna has struggled, winning only 1 in the same period.
Why this pick: Cagliari vs Bologna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Cagliari vs Bologna: model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Edge | +5% | -3% | -3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cagliari vs Bologna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 3.23 | 3.10 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.02 | 3.07 | +0.05 |
| Bologna | 2.46 | 2.42 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cagliari and Bologna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Cagliari / Bologna)
- 0.99 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Cagliari / Bologna)
- 1.25 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cagliari vs Bologna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cagliari vs Bologna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cagliari vs Bologna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 32% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Bologna | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cagliari or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Bologna) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win by 2+ | 19% | 5.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cagliari and Bologna recent form
Cagliari
3W 1D 2L
Bologna
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cagliari at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Bologna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cagliari at home only, Bologna away only.
Cagliari vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cagliari 1 · draws 1 · Bologna 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Bologna | 0-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-10-19 | Cagliari | 0-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-03-02 | Bologna | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-10-29 | Cagliari | 0-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2024-01-14 | Cagliari | 2-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2023-09-02 | Bologna | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
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- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
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Before and after this match
- Cagliari, previous: Monza vs Cagliari: odds and pick
- Bologna, previous: Bologna vs Inter: odds and pick