Alcoyano vs Mallorca Prediction & Betting Tips 05/11/2026

Alcoyano vs Mallorca preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Alcoyano and Mallorca, the 1X2 probabilities show Mallorca at 59% to win, while Alcoyano sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance according to our model.

Alcoyano's expected goals are 0.75, which indicates they may struggle to score, while Mallorca's expected goals are 1.58. The chances of Over 2.5 goals are at 41%, and both teams to score stands at 43%. Factors such as Alcoyano's recent form, which is not available, could influence the outcome and affect these predictions.

Alcoyano vs Mallorca: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Alcoyano	Draw	Mallorca
Model	14%	25%	60%
Market	16%	24%	60%
Published	15%	25%	60%
Edge	0%	0%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.73.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded 2026-11-03 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Alcoyano vs Mallorca odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mallorca, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.57Now 1.55 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Alcoyano	5.50	6.00	+0.50
Draw	3.70	3.82	+0.12
Mallorca	1.57	1.55	-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Alcoyano and Mallorca expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.73Alcoyano

1.73Mallorca

Total expected goals: 2.46
Attack rating (Alcoyano / Mallorca): 1.00 / 0.83
Defence rating (Alcoyano / Mallorca): 1.00 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alcoyano vs Mallorca score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 13.7% 12.8% 7.4% 4.7% 1 5.2% 11.9% 9.3% 5.4% 3.4% 2 2.3% 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 3 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Alcoyano goals. Columns: Mallorca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alcoyano vs Mallorca goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alcoyano vs Mallorca

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Alcoyano	15%	6.56
	Draw	25%	4.06
	Mallorca	60%	1.66
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.25
	Under 2.5	55%	1.80
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.29
	No	56%	1.78
Double chance	1X (Alcoyano or draw)	40%	2.51
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Mallorca)	85%	1.18
Handicap -1	Mallorca win by 2+	35%	2.86
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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